TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 30, 2026, 11:30 AM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 11:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:18h:21m

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 18h 21m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T16:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T16:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 11:30 AM and 11:45 AM ET on November 6th. You'll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume for this market is $0, reflecting the overall interest from traders on Predict.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental economic factors and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially in the short-term, as traders react quickly to news and events. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential surprises.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments to expectations as new information becomes available, creating a constantly updated forecast of the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:30 AM and 11:45 AM ET on November 6th. If the price is higher at 11:45 AM than it was at 11:30 AM, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective determination.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 6, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could impact investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant changes in central bank policies could trigger substantial price movements and, consequently, shifts in this market’s odds.