TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 5, 8PM-8:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 8:00 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 8:15 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 8PM-8:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 8PM-8:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:22h:58m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 8PM-8:15PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 8PM-8:15PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 22h 58m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T01:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T01:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You can view the implied probabilities for each outcome, as well as the total volume traded, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. The dashboard also displays a price history chart reflecting how traders are positioning themselves on this market. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer long-term predictions based on economic indicators, this market captures a more immediate assessment of potential price movement. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many traders, potentially identifying factors not fully considered in standard analyses. This difference arises from the diverse information and incentives driving participation in this market compared to those influencing analyst opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating implied probabilities for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the crowd participating in this market.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:00 PM and 8:15 PM ET on November 5th. Specifically, the market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that 15-minute window. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, or significant shifts in currency exchange rates, could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the odds in this market. Any surprise announcements related to gold production or demand could also be a catalyst.