TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

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4,340

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5

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Gold Up or Down - November 5, 6:45AM-7AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 6:45 AM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 7:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 6:45AM-7AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 6:45AM-7AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:12h:36m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 6:45AM-7AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 6:45AM-7AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 12h 36m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T11:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T11:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of trading volume, currently at $0, alongside the total volume traded to date, which is $0. The dashboard also shows how the odds have shifted over time, giving you a historical perspective on market sentiment. It's a central hub for monitoring activity and understanding how traders are positioning themselves on the future direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold’s performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new data or events, potentially offering a more dynamic and responsive outlook compared to static analyst reports. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and any new information or shifts in sentiment are quickly incorporated into the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive market.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 6:45AM-7:00AM ET window on November 5th. Specifically, the market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that timeframe. The final price movement will be verified against credible public sources to ensure an accurate and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in international relations, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, changes in interest rate expectations or statements from central banks could trigger price movements. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in global currency valuations could also move this market considerably.