TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 6:15 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 6:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:23h:02m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 23h 2m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T23:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T23:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different outcomes for gold. The dashboard is designed to give you a clear picture of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are offering predictions about gold's future performance, this market allows traders to express their beliefs directly through financial commitments. This can lead to a more accurate assessment, as traders have 'skin in the game'. Discrepancies between this market and analyst opinions can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked factors influencing the price of gold. It’s a valuable comparison point for anyone following the gold market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd participating in this market, and it’s constantly updated as new information becomes available. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit from correctly anticipating the outcome.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified time window – 6:15 PM to 6:30 PM ET on November 5th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price movement will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or international conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Central bank announcements regarding interest rate policy are another key factor. Even significant shifts in the US dollar's strength could influence the price of gold, causing substantial changes in this market’s odds.