TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 5:30 AM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 5:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:09h:06m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 9h 6m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T10:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T10:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the outcome over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $0. The total volume traded to date is $0, providing insight into overall market interest. This information helps traders assess sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk tolerances, or access to information. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream analyst opinions, offering a potentially valuable leading indicator.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts reflects the level of uncertainty and disagreement among traders. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence and tighter spreads, while lower volume can lead to wider price discrepancies.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 5:30AM-5:45AM ET window on November 5th. The market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that period, and the outcome will be reported accordingly. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their predictions.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or major currency fluctuations could influence investor sentiment and impact trading activity in this market. Any significant news related to central bank policies or global economic outlooks will likely be closely watched by traders.