TOTAL VOLUME:

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2,984,640,614

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$1,944,100,805

420,493

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40,511

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4,612

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5

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Gold Up or Down - November 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 5:15 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 5:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:20h:09m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 20h 9m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T22:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T22:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and how sentiment is changing as we approach the event. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where the crowd believes the gold price is headed.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend based on geopolitical instability, this market shows a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of factors and real-time information. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and polls or analyst opinions, as markets aggregate diverse viewpoints and allow participants to update their beliefs as new information becomes available. This dynamic can offer a unique signal beyond traditional forecasting methods.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, and changes rapidly as new information emerges. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a dynamic and efficient price discovery process for the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:15 PM ET and 5:30 PM ET on November 5th. A positive change indicates the price went up, while a negative change indicates it went down. The final price movement will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider and used to determine which outcome—up or down—is the winner in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating conflicts or unexpected political developments, could also drive volatility. Furthermore, significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in investor risk appetite could influence the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Any unexpected news related to major gold-producing countries could also affect the market.