TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

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2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

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40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 5, 4:45AM-5AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 4:45 AM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 5:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 4:45AM-5AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 4:45AM-5AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:05h:35m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 4:45AM-5AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 4:45AM-5AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 5h 35m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T09:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T09:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential for price fluctuations in gold, offering insights into market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic models, this market aggregates the wisdom of many individual traders, creating a dynamic forecast based on collective judgment. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events occur or when there’s significant uncertainty surrounding factors influencing gold prices. This difference can be valuable for a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. As more traders buy 'up' contracts, the price of those contracts increases, and the odds of gold increasing shift accordingly. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This creates a continuously updated probability assessment based on the collective actions of market participants. The current trading volume indicates the level of interest and conviction surrounding each potential outcome.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe – 4:45AM to 5:00AM ET on November 5th. The direction of the price movement (up or down) will determine which outcome is declared the winner. The final price change will be sourced from reliable financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political shifts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Changes in interest rate expectations, influenced by central bank policies, are another key driver. Finally, major news related to gold mining production or significant purchases by central banks could also cause substantial shifts in the odds.