TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 3:30 AM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 3:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:07h:10m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 10m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T08:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T08:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 3:30AM and 3:45AM ET on November 5th. You'll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume for this market is $0. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities based on the collective wisdom of the crowd.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and geopolitical factors, this market incorporates a wider range of information and real-time sentiment. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can quickly adapt to new information and changing perceptions. Comparing this market to polls and expert opinions provides a unique perspective on potential gold price fluctuations, and often reveals where the crowd disagrees with conventional wisdom.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:30AM and 3:45AM ET on November 5th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political shifts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant currency fluctuations, particularly with the US dollar, could influence the price of gold. Any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries or large institutional investors could also cause noticeable shifts in this market.