TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - November 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 2:30 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 2:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:13h:15m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 13h 15m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T19:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T19:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value by November 5th. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with price history charts illustrating how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are positioning themselves on the potential direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing reports on gold’s potential trajectory, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream financial news, offering a unique and potentially valuable signal for those following the gold market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the evolving expectations of participants.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:30 PM and 2:45 PM ET on November 5th. If the price is higher at 2:45 PM ET than at 2:30 PM ET, the 'up' outcome will win; if it's lower, the 'down' outcome will win. The precise price difference will not be a factor in determining the winner, only the direction of the movement.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 5, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices due to its status as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger price movements and, consequently, shifts in this market.