TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 2:15 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 2:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:18h:12m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 18h 12m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T19:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T19:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of gold prices leading up to the event. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest market activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued upward trend for gold due to global economic uncertainty, this market may reveal a more nuanced view based on the collective wisdom of traders. Discrepancies can arise from different information sources, risk tolerances, and analytical approaches. It’s valuable to consider both viewpoints when forming your own assessment of the gold price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. As more people buy contracts predicting an increase, the price of those contracts rises, and vice versa. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants and provides a continuously updated probability assessment of the outcome. The current market prices represent the probability of each outcome as perceived by traders on Predict.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 2:15 PM ET and 2:30 PM ET on November 5th. If the price increases during that timeframe, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. If the price decreases or remains the same, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price change will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by gold traders. Any surprise announcements in these areas could cause substantial shifts in the odds within this market.