TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 5, 1:45PM-2PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 1:45 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 2:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 1:45PM-2PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 1:45PM-2PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:22h:26m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 1:45PM-2PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 1:45PM-2PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 22h 26m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T18:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T18:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probability of gold increasing or decreasing in value between now and Nov 5, 2026. You’ll find a live feed of trading volume, currently at $0, as well as the total volume traded to date, which is $0. The dashboard also displays the current odds being set by traders on Predict, reflecting their collective predictions about the future price of gold. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued rise in gold prices due to geopolitical instability, this market reflects a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the wisdom of the crowd, as represented by the trading activity on Predict. This market allows you to assess whether the collective prediction differs from the consensus of financial experts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated judgment of all participants in the market.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between the market’s opening and the designated close time. The direction of the price movement – whether it goes up or down – will determine which outcome is considered correct. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and settlement details on Predict following the resolution date.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating conflicts or political instability in major economies, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding global economic growth or currency fluctuations could similarly influence trading activity in this market, shifting the probabilities as traders react to new information.