TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 1:30 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 1:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:20h:54m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Amount

$

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 20h 54m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T18:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T18:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:30PM and 1:45PM ET on November 5. You'll find the current odds reflecting trader sentiment, a historical price chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume for this market is $0, indicating overall interest. This allows you to assess how the market is perceiving the likelihood of each outcome.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing probabilities for a simple up or down outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from consensus analyst expectations, particularly when anticipating unexpected events or shifts in market sentiment. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market odds are constantly updated to reflect new information and changing sentiment among traders. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the gold price, as reported by a major financial data provider, is higher or lower at 1:45PM ET on November 5 than it was at 1:30PM ET on the same day. The precise price difference is not relevant; only the direction of the movement determines the winning outcome in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy or interest rate changes could influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the price of gold. Any surprising news related to major gold-holding nations could also shift the probabilities.