TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$238,896,186

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,934,485

408,127

Markets across

39,552

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,429

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12AM-12:15AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 1:40 AM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 12:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12AM-12:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12AM-12:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 01d:20h:20m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12AM-12:15AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12AM-12:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 20h 20m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T05:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T05:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value over the specified timeframe. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total overall volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing predictions about gold's future performance, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with real capital. This can lead to a more accurate assessment, as traders are incentivized to be correct. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially outpacing the speed of traditional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news and events, constantly adjusting their positions. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:00 AM ET and 12:15 AM ET on November 5th. The direction of the price movement – whether it increases or decreases – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 5, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant changes in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, and any surprising announcements from major gold-producing countries could all contribute to price volatility and movement in this market.