TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 12:15 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 12:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:16h:55m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 16h 55m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T17:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T17:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 12:15PM and 12:30PM ET on November 5th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to see how traders are reacting to news and information as the event approaches. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or directional opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the potential gold price movement. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets are sensitive to a wider range of information and can adjust rapidly to new developments. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price increasing during the specified timeframe. Higher prices suggest a stronger belief in an upward movement, while lower prices indicate the opposite.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:15PM and 12:30PM ET on November 5th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. This determination will be based on publicly available financial data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global political stability or major international incidents, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, or significant movements in the US dollar, could influence trading activity in this market. Any news impacting investor risk appetite could play a role.