TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$245,601,049

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,405,322

408,349

Markets across

39,583

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,443

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 1:40 AM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 12:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 01d:21h:28m

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Amount

$

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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 21h 28m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T05:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T05:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of gold prices leading up to the event. The dashboard is a key tool for understanding market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts may offer opinions on gold's future performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of informed opinions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate trends before they are widely recognized in mainstream financial analysis, offering a potentially valuable signal for those following the gold market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly liquid and efficient market for forecasting gold price movements.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:15 AM and 12:30 AM ET on November 5th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be correct. The final price change will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or political instability, frequently drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in global risk appetite can influence trading activity in this market. Any news impacting the overall economic outlook or investor sentiment could lead to substantial price swings.