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$1,885,293,300

410,482

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 9:15 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 9:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 02d:03h:22m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 3h 22m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T02:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T02:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, a price history showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $0. The total volume traded on this market is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of gold prices.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Predict. These odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts, which may be based on fundamental or technical analysis. While analysts offer opinions on future price movements, this market represents what people are willing to put their money on. Discrepancies between this market and analyst expectations can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty regarding the future price of gold, offering a valuable signal to those following the commodity.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving probabilities of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price essentially represents the implied probability of the gold price increasing, with the remaining probability assigned to a price decrease. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:15 PM ET and 9:30 PM ET on November 4th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases or remains flat, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can impact investor sentiment and the gold price. Any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries could also affect this market.