TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 8AM-8:15AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 8:00 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 8:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 8AM-8:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 8AM-8:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:11h:42m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 8AM-8:15AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 8AM-8:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 11h 42m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T13:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T13:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a history of how those odds have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0, providing insight into overall market interest. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend based on geopolitical instability and inflation concerns, this market shows a more nuanced view. The collective wisdom of traders on Predict may be incorporating factors not fully captured in standard economic models, such as short-term market manipulation or unexpected supply chain disruptions. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own opinion.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing means the odds are constantly updated, providing a real-time assessment of market sentiment regarding the gold price movement. The current implied probabilities are shaped by the latest trades and overall market activity.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:00 AM and 8:15 AM ET on November 4th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a price decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down'. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, could shift investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions in major regions or surprise policy announcements from central banks, are also likely catalysts. Furthermore, any major news regarding gold supply, demand, or the strength of the US dollar could drive price fluctuations and, consequently, impact the odds in this market. Keep an eye on these developments as the resolution date approaches.