TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 8:15 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 8:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:11h:57m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

Amount

$

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Outcome
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 11h 57m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T13:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T13:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probability of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide price targets based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders betting real capital on the outcome. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of economic data, geopolitical events, or simply varying risk appetites. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream financial commentary.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, and traders can adjust their positions as new information becomes available. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:15 AM and 8:30 AM Eastern Time on November 4, 2026. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a price decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down.' The precise price change will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or trade negotiations, can also drive volatility. Central bank announcements regarding interest rate policies are particularly important, as they affect the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. Even shifts in investor sentiment, triggered by news headlines or social media trends, could lead to substantial price movements in this market.