TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - November 4, 7PM-7:15PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 7:00 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 7:15 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 7PM-7:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 7PM-7:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:21h:59m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 7PM-7:15PM ET

Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 7PM-7:15PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 21h 59m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T00:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T00:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental economic data and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can react more quickly to new information and changing sentiment. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential biases.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and sentiment, creating a real-time assessment of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:00 PM and 7:15 PM ET on November 4th. An increase will determine one outcome, while a decrease will determine the other. The final price will be sourced from reliable financial data providers to ensure an accurate and impartial determination of the result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or major currency fluctuations could also move the market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in sentiment and price movements within this market.