TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6PM-6:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 6:00 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 6:15 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6PM-6:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6PM-6:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 02d:02h:37m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6PM-6:15PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6PM-6:15PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 2h 37m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T23:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T23:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. It displays the implied probabilities for each outcome, reflecting the collective predictions of traders on the platform. You’ll also find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0, indicating overall interest and participation.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or directional opinions on gold’s price, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the potential price movement. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. The market's current probabilities reflect what traders believe is most likely to happen, independent of any single analyst's view.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect changing sentiment regarding the gold price movement. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty among traders.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 6PM-6:15PM ET window on November 4th. An increase in price will favor the 'up' outcome, while a decrease will favor the 'down' outcome. The exact price movement will be verified against publicly available financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding central bank policies, particularly interest rate decisions, will likely have an impact. Finally, any significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or weakness could also trigger price movements and affect trading activity in this market.