TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:45PM-7PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 6:45 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 7:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:45PM-7PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:45PM-7PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:21h:45m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:45PM-7PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:45PM-7PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 21h 45m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T23:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T23:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving as we approach the market’s resolution date. The dashboard is a key tool for understanding market participants’ expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer detailed reports and price targets based on economic indicators, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouths are. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, the inclusion of non-public information by traders, or simply a broader range of considered factors. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and is constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to evolving expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe—6:45 PM to 7:00 PM ET on November 4th—and will determine whether the market settles in favor of “Up” or “Down”. The specific price change that constitutes “Up” or “Down” is defined by the market’s contract details on Predict and is transparently available to all participants before trading.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political shifts, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant movements in the US dollar or changes in global risk appetite could influence trading activity in this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential price fluctuations.