TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:45AM-7AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 6:45 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 7:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:45AM-7AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:45AM-7AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:15h:10m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:45AM-7AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:45AM-7AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 10m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T11:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T11:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and make informed decisions about buying or selling shares.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic models, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of opinions and potential outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk tolerance, or access to information. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially offering a more dynamic view than static analyst reports.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:45 AM and 7:00 AM ET on November 4th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted “Up”, while a decrease will favor those who predicted “Down”. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or international conflicts, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by the market. Any surprise announcements in these areas could lead to substantial shifts in trading activity.