TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 6:30 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 6:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:17h:12m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

Amount

$

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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 17h 12m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T23:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T23:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. It also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving leading up to the event. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick overview of market activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental economic indicators and historical trends, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many individual traders, potentially incorporating information not readily available in standard reports. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events or sentiment shifts occur. Examining these differences can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes and the factors influencing them. This market offers a dynamic view compared to static analyst predictions.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the direction of the gold price movement during the specified timeframe – 6:30PM-6:45PM ET on November 4th. A clear increase or decrease in price will determine which side of the market pays out. The precise price change isn’t specified, only the direction of the movement. This allows for a straightforward and objective assessment of the market’s accuracy.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected conflicts or shifts in global trade relations, can also create volatility. Furthermore, changes in investor sentiment, driven by news headlines or analyst commentary, could influence trading activity. Unexpected announcements related to central bank gold reserves or major gold mining companies could also be catalysts for price movement in this market.