TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5AM-5:15AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 5:00 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 5:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5AM-5:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5AM-5:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:07h:55m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5AM-5:15AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity
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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
Open Interest
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5AM-5:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 7h 55m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T10:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T10:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders, along with the total volume traded – currently $0 – and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $0. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and how actively traders are participating in this particular prediction market. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, showing how the odds have shifted over time.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and geopolitical factors, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as traders may incorporate factors not typically considered by analysts, or react more quickly to breaking news. Examining these differences can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants, constantly adjusting to new information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:00 AM and 5:15 AM ET on November 4th. If the price is higher at 5:15 AM ET than at 5:00 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be deemed correct. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts or political instability, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations, central bank policies, and even major currency fluctuations could all influence trader sentiment and subsequently, the odds in this market. Keep an eye on these factors for potential shifts in the market.