TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5:45PM-6PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 5:45 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 6:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5:45PM-6PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5:45PM-6PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:20h:44m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5:45PM-6PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity
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Outcome
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5:45PM-6PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 20h 44m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T22:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T22:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity around the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves on this event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold’s price movement, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, expressing their beliefs as probabilities. Often, this market can provide an early signal of shifts in sentiment that aren’t yet reflected in mainstream financial analysis. It’s important to remember that both approaches have limitations, and this market represents a unique data point alongside those traditional forecasts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, and the market price reflects the aggregated assessment of all participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time estimate of the probability of each outcome.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 60-minute window, from 5:45 PM to 6:00 PM ET on November 4th. The direction of the price change—whether it increases or decreases—will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could influence investor sentiment. Any significant news related to major gold-producing countries or large institutional investors could also cause shifts in this market.