TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 5:15 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 5:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:12h:02m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Amount

$

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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 12h 2m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T10:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T10:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. It also provides a price history chart, showing how the implied probabilities have shifted over time, and tracks the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume for this market is $0. This allows participants to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide price targets and directional predictions for gold, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to unique data. It’s common to see this market react more quickly to new information than slower-moving analyst reports, offering a potentially more real-time assessment of expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that increased buying pressure on the 'up' side will raise its price and lower the implied probability of a price decrease, and vice versa. This creates a constantly updated forecast.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:15 AM and 5:30 AM ET on November 4th. If the price is higher at 5:30 AM ET than at 5:15 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in international relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, changes in interest rate expectations, central bank policies, and currency fluctuations could all contribute to price movements. Any surprising news regarding major gold-producing nations or significant shifts in investor sentiment could also move this market.