TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:45PM-5PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 4:45 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 5:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:45PM-5PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:45PM-5PM ET - Predict

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Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:22h:08m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:45PM-5PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:45PM-5PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
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1d 22h 8m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T21:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T21:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price action of gold. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing beliefs as probabilities. If a significant number of analysts predict gold will rise, you might see higher probabilities assigned to that outcome in this market, but the market can also reflect factors analysts may overlook. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies and the inclusion of diverse information sources within the prediction market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, and the current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants. Trading volume influences how quickly prices adjust to new information.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified time window—November 4th from 4:45 PM to 5:00 PM ET. If the gold price is higher at 5:00 PM ET than it was at 4:45 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The price source used for verification will be a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could affect the attractiveness of gold relative to other investments. Any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency valuations could also move the market.