TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:45AM-5AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 4:45 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 5:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:45AM-5AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:45AM-5AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:13h:11m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:45AM-5AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity
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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:45AM-5AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 13h 11m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T09:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T09:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart illustrating how predictions have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price fluctuations of gold. The dashboard is regularly updated to reflect the latest predictions from traders.

Generally, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential influences. Often, prediction markets can be more accurate than polls or expert opinions, as traders have a financial incentive to make correct predictions. However, it’s important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and neither guarantees future outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating odds that reflect the collective prediction of the market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to each outcome, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. Trading volume also plays a role, influencing the liquidity and responsiveness of the market.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe – November 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET. The direction of the price movement, whether up or down, will determine the winning outcome of this market. Traders will be able to view the verified results on Predict following the resolution date.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or major international developments, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rates or currency fluctuations could influence the price of gold. Any significant news related to central bank policies or major gold-producing countries could also create volatility in this market.