TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 4:15 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 4:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:11h:25m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

Amount

$

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Outcome
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 11h 25m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T09:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T09:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the market’s price history and 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $0. The total volume traded on this market is $0, providing insight into overall interest. This information is updated in real-time, allowing you to monitor shifts in sentiment and potential trading opportunities.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and geopolitical factors, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and potential information. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when unexpected events occur or when there's significant uncertainty surrounding the future direction of gold. Comparing this market’s probabilities to those published by financial news outlets and expert commentators can offer a broader view of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price effectively represents the market’s consensus expectation, and changes in price indicate shifts in sentiment among traders. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and evolving perspectives.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:15 AM and 4:30 AM ET on November 4th. The market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that period, and that result will be used to settle all outstanding contracts. Traders will then receive payouts based on the accuracy of their predictions.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or major international conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant shifts in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, and any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries could all impact trading activity and the price of contracts in this market.