TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3PM-3:15PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 3:15 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3PM-3:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3PM-3:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:21h:07m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3PM-3:15PM ET

Amount

$

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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3PM-3:15PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 21h 7m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T20:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T20:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. It also shows a price history chart reflecting how these probabilities have shifted over time, giving traders a visual representation of market sentiment. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides insight into how actively this market is being traded.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of non-public information by traders. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream financial analysis, offering a potentially leading indicator of price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their assessments. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different scenarios, distinct from static analyst reports.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:00 PM ET and 3:15 PM ET on November 4th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a price decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down'. The precise price change will be verified against established financial data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can have a substantial effect. Any surprise announcements or developments in these areas could lead to substantial shifts in trading activity and the overall probabilities reflected in this market.