TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3AM-3:15AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 3:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3AM-3:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3AM-3:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:12h:36m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3AM-3:15AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3AM-3:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
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N/A
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1d 12h 36m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T08:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T08:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 3:00 AM and 3:15 AM ET on November 4th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total market volume, which is $0. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating in this market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic models, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, representing a broader range of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when unexpected events or sentiment shifts occur. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential biases, offering a unique view beyond standard financial analysis.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:00 AM and 3:15 AM ET on November 4th. If the price is higher at 3:15 AM ET than at 3:00 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or major international incidents, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or statements from central banks could influence investor sentiment and trading activity in this market. Any news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also play a role.