TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:45AM-4AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 3:45 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 4:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:45AM-4AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:45AM-4AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:03h:28m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:45AM-4AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity
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Outcome
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:45AM-4AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 3h 28m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T08:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T08:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, currently at $0, and the total market volume, which is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the future direction of gold prices. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves on this question.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold prices, this market represents the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. This market offers a unique view, aggregating individual opinions into a single, tradable probability.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the combined judgment of all participants, and the market is open for trading until the resolution date. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for efficient discovery of information and a constantly updated forecast.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe of November 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET. The direction of the price movement – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and any relevant supporting data shortly after the resolution timeframe has passed.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant changes in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, can influence the price of gold. Any unexpected news related to these factors could cause substantial shifts in trading activity within this market.