TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 3:30 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 3:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:21h:55m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
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1d 21h 55m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T20:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T20:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $0, and the total volume traded to date, at $0. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price change of gold. The dashboard helps you understand where other traders are placing their bets and how confidence is evolving.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold's trajectory, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals incentivized to be accurate. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market diverge from consensus estimates, especially when anticipating unexpected events or shifts in market sentiment. Comparing the two can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. As more people buy 'up' contracts, the price of those contracts increases, and the implied probability of gold rising also increases. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, creating a real-time estimate of the likelihood of each outcome. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly adjusting to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:30 PM ET and 3:45 PM ET on November 4th. If the price increases during that 15-minute window, the 'up' outcome will win. If the price decreases or remains the same, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can play a crucial role. Any surprise announcements or unforeseen circumstances could lead to substantial shifts in the odds within this market.