TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 3:15 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 3:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:20h:02m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

Amount

$

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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 20h 2m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T20:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T20:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the historical price action of the market itself. The dashboard also displays the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing predictions about gold prices, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of informed opinions. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as analysts may be influenced by biases or specific methodologies. This market provides a real-time, financially incentivized forecast, potentially offering a more accurate signal than static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the predicted event occurring. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:15 PM ET and 3:30 PM ET on November 4th. The direction of the price movement – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome of this market. The resolution process is designed to be objective and transparent, relying on publicly available data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or international conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could influence investor sentiment and affect the price of gold. Shifts in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, also play a role.