TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2AM-2:15AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 2:21 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 2:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2AM-2:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2AM-2:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:10h:27m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2AM-2:15AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2AM-2:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 10h 27m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T07:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T07:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the total volume traded – currently at $0 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how it’s changing in real-time. The dashboard also displays price history, providing a record of how the probabilities have shifted leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic models, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of factors and potential surprises. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of geopolitical events, unexpected economic data releases, or simply the collective intuition of traders. It’s useful to compare the implied probability from this market with the consensus view of financial analysts to gain a more comprehensive understanding of potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, trading activity, and shifts in overall market sentiment. Essentially, the price indicates the probability that the market participants assign to the event occurring.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on November 4, 2026. If the price is higher at 2:15 AM ET than at 2:00 AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or escalating conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected shifts in global currency valuations, particularly the US dollar, will likely influence trading activity. Finally, significant news regarding gold mining production or major institutional investments could also contribute to price volatility.