TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 2:30 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 2:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:23h:05m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Amount

$

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Outcome
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 23h 5m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T19:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T19:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold’s future performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of informed opinions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream analyst reports, offering a potentially leading indicator of market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants on Predict and indicates the market’s implied probability of each outcome. Traders adjust their positions based on new information and their own analysis, driving the price towards what they believe is a fair valuation.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:30 PM and 2:45 PM ET on November 4th. If the price is higher at 2:45 PM ET than it was at 2:30 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will win. The exact price used for determination will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any significant news regarding major gold-producing countries or large institutional investors could move this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential price fluctuations.