TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 2:21 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:06h:52m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity
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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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Ends in
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 6h 52m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T07:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T07:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value. You'll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the outcome over time, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $0, and the total volume for this market is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouths are. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when unforeseen events or ‘black swan’ scenarios are considered likely. This market provides a unique, real-time gauge of belief about the gold price, distinct from expert opinions and polls.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants, and the current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty surrounding the outcome. Traders adjust their positions based on new information, influencing the market price in real-time.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe of November 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET. The direction of the price movement—whether it increases or decreases—will determine which outcome is considered correct. Traders will be able to see the final result and any supporting documentation on Predict following the resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Central bank announcements regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate changes, are closely watched by gold traders. Any surprise announcements or developments in these areas could lead to substantial shifts in the odds within this market.