TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1PM-1:15PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold be up or down by November 4?

Oct 28, 2026, 1:00 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 1:15 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1PM-1:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1PM-1:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:15h:57m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1PM-1:15PM ET

Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1PM-1:15PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 57m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T18:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T18:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1 PM and 1:15 PM ET on November 4th. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, reflecting what traders are willing to bet on the outcome. The dashboard also shows the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This provides a snapshot of market activity and sentiment surrounding the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or directional predictions based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when unexpected events or “black swan” risks are factored into trader sentiment. This difference highlights how prediction markets can offer a unique signal, potentially identifying overlooked factors influencing the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly translating into implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders bet on a particular outcome, the higher the price of contracts for that outcome becomes, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1 PM and 1:15 PM ET on November 4th. If the price increases during that window, the ‘Up’ outcome will win; if it decreases, the ‘Down’ outcome will win. The exact price change will be verified against reliable financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, major news related to central bank monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments, could impact the gold price. Even surprising statements from key financial figures could create volatility and shift trading activity in this market.