TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1AM-1:15AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 2:21 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 1:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1AM-1:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1AM-1:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:05h:40m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1AM-1:15AM ET

Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1AM-1:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 5h 40m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T06:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T06:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:00 AM and 1:15 AM ET on November 4th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume for this market is $0. This information allows you to quickly assess the collective prediction of traders on Predict.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating potential surprises. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as traders weigh factors not always captured in standard reports. Examining these differences can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes for the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:00 AM and 1:15 AM ET on November 4th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'down' outcome will be declared the winner. The precise price source will be determined by Predict’s resolution process.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could shift investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven asset. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, often drive demand for gold. Additionally, any significant news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could impact the gold price. Finally, major currency fluctuations, especially involving the US dollar, can also move this market.