TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$172,394,893

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,821,572,886

404,136

Markets across

40,075

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:45AM-2AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 2:21 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 2:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:45AM-2AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:45AM-2AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:15h:37m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:45AM-2AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity
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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:45AM-2AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 37m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T06:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T06:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the potential direction of the gold price. The dashboard is updated frequently to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, the collective prediction on Predict offers a unique perspective when contrasted with traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are offering predictions on gold’s future performance, this market represents the wisdom of the crowd, aggregating the insights of numerous individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the market’s implied probability, often reflecting differing risk tolerances and interpretations of economic indicators. This provides a valuable comparative data point for anyone following the gold market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and any new information or shifts in sentiment are quickly incorporated into the price. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to evolving conditions.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe of November 4, 1:45AM-2AM ET. The final price movement will be assessed against established benchmarks to determine whether the market resolves in favor of 'Up' or 'Down'. Traders will then receive payouts based on their positions and the final outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often drive gold price movements. Geopolitical events and shifts in global risk sentiment also play a crucial role, as gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant changes in currency exchange rates could also trigger volatility in this market. Any developments impacting investor confidence could lead to shifts in trading activity.