TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 1:30 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 1:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:19h:36m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
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1d 19h 36m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T18:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T18:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probability of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:30 PM and 1:45 PM ET on November 4th. You'll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0, providing insight into overall market interest. This allows participants to assess sentiment and potential shifts in expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for gold’s price movement, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the same event. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially exceeding the responsiveness of slower-moving analyst reports. Comparing the two offers a valuable check on conventional thinking.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price increasing during the specified timeframe. Higher prices suggest greater confidence in an upward movement, while lower prices indicate the opposite.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:30 PM and 1:45 PM ET on November 4th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger price fluctuations. Shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in investor risk appetite are additional signals to watch that could move this market.