TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 2:21 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 1:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:06h:10m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

Amount

$

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 6h 10m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T06:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T06:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll see the odds reflecting trader sentiment, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume for this market is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market interest and how predictions are evolving as the event approaches.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or directional biases, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the future. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate information and react to news more quickly than slower-moving analyst reports. Examining these differences can be insightful, offering a broader understanding of potential outcomes for the gold price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of expectations for the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:30 AM and 1:45 AM ET on November 4th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The precise price change will be verified against credible public sources to determine the final result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major political announcements, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are likely to move this market. Any surprise developments in these areas could cause a substantial shift in trader sentiment and the implied probabilities reflected in the gold price movement market.