TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12PM-12:15PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 12:15 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12PM-12:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12PM-12:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:15h:57m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12PM-12:15PM ET

Amount

$

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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12PM-12:15PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 57m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T17:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T17:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 12PM and 12:15PM ET on November 4th. You'll find a price history chart displaying how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total 24-hour volume traded. Currently, the total volume for this market is $0, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and track trading activity related to short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide predictions on gold price movements, their views are often based on fundamental and technical analysis. This market, however, reflects real-money sentiment and incorporates a wider range of information, including potentially non-public data and a rapid response to breaking news. It's a dynamic comparison, as the market continuously updates its probabilities leading up to the event.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the resolution time, the more volatile the price may become as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to accurately represent the market's expectation of the event's outcome.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12PM and 12:15PM ET on November 4th. If the price increases during that 15-minute window, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be declared the winner. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global political stability or major international news, can also drive significant price movements. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly those related to interest rates, are closely watched by gold traders. Any surprise announcements or shifts in market sentiment related to these events could cause substantial changes in the odds of this market.