TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12:45AM-1AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 2:21 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 1:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12:45AM-1AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12:45AM-1AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:05h:24m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12:45AM-1AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12:45AM-1AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
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1d 5h 24m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T05:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T05:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to see how much activity there is and how traders are positioning themselves. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding the future direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic models, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals betting their own capital. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, risk tolerance, or access to unique information. It’s common to see this market anticipate changes before they are reflected in consensus analyst estimates, or to assign different probabilities to various outcomes than those published by financial institutions.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified time window – 12:45AM-1AM ET on November 4th. Specifically, the market will determine whether the price moved up or down from its starting point during that period. The final price movement will be verified against credible public sources to ensure an accurate and transparent outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often drive gold price movements. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in global trade relations, can also create safe-haven demand for gold. Additionally, changes in the US dollar’s strength or significant shifts in investor risk appetite could impact the direction of this market. Unexpected news regarding gold mining production or central bank gold reserves could also play a role.