TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 12:15 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 12:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:14h:56m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

Amount

$

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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14h 56m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T17:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T17:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold to move up or down, reflecting the collective predictions of traders. It also displays a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This allows users to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities based on recent activity and overall interest in the direction of gold.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts typically base their predictions on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of factors and potentially reacting more quickly to new information. Often, the market can offer a contrarian view to prevailing analyst sentiment, providing a unique perspective on the likely outcome of the gold price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence of participants, and allows traders to express nuanced views on the potential price movement of gold.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 12:15 PM ET and 12:30 PM ET on November 4th. A positive change indicates the price moved up, while a negative change indicates the price moved down. This market provides a way to forecast the short-term direction of gold, based on real-time trading activity.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major policy announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger substantial price movements and impact trading activity in this market.