TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

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40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 11AM-11:15AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 11:00 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 11:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 11AM-11:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 11AM-11:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:16h:48m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 11AM-11:15AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 11AM-11:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 16h 48m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T16:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T16:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the event over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially in the short term. This market provides a unique, forward-looking indicator of what traders believe will happen, potentially offering insights beyond those found in standard financial reports and commentary.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and the market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:00 AM ET and 11:15 AM ET on November 4th. The direction of the price movement – whether it increases or decreases – will determine the winning outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and any relevant supporting data shortly after the resolution time.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Even significant movements in the US dollar exchange rate can affect the price of gold, as it is typically priced in USD.