TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 1:15 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 1:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:18h:04m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Amount

$

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Outcome
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 18h 4m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T18:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T18:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You’ll find a price history chart visualizing how the market has priced in different probabilities over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This information allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold price movement, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of potential outcomes. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to divergences from initial analyst predictions. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders responding to news, economic data, and their own analysis. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds continuously adapt to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 1:15 PM – 1:30 PM ET time window on November 4th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a price decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down.' The specific price change that determines the outcome will be publicly available following the resolution of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy or interest rates could prompt traders to reassess their positions. Any news that alters the perceived risk appetite of investors or impacts the US dollar's strength is likely to move this market.