TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 11:30 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 11:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:15h:05m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

Amount

$

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Outcome
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 5m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T16:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T16:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 11:30AM and 11:45AM ET on November 4th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market suggests a more nuanced expectation. It's common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and analyst opinions, as markets aggregate diverse information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards. This difference highlights the value of considering a wider range of perspectives when evaluating potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. As more traders participate, the market price converges towards a consensus probability, offering a real-time assessment of the likely outcome. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market remains responsive to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 11:30AM and 11:45AM ET on November 4th. If the price is higher at 11:45AM ET than at 11:30AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, could also drive volatility. Furthermore, shifts in interest rate expectations or significant currency fluctuations could play a role. Any news that alters the perceived risk environment or impacts the demand for safe-haven assets like gold has the potential to move this market substantially.