TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 10AM-10:15AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 10:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 10AM-10:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 10AM-10:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:13h:57m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 10AM-10:15AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 10AM-10:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 13h 57m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T15:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T15:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM ET on November 4th. You’ll find a live feed of the current odds, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This allows you to see how traders are reacting to news and information as the event approaches.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates diverse opinions into a probability distribution. If analysts are generally bullish on gold, we might see higher probabilities assigned to an upward price movement, but the market can also reflect disagreement or uncertainty that isn’t always apparent in standard reports. It's a way to gauge market sentiment beyond typical financial commentary.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM ET on November 4th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases or remains flat, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price data will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds to ensure transparency and accuracy.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected political developments, can also drive investor sentiment toward safe-haven assets like gold. Major news regarding central bank policies, particularly those related to interest rates, could also cause substantial price movements. Any significant surprise in these areas could lead to shifts in trading activity and, consequently, the odds in this market.