TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 4, 10:45PM-11PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 10:45 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 11:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 10:45PM-11PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 10:45PM-11PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 02d:07h:20m

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 10:45PM-11PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 4, 10:45PM-11PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 20m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T03:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T03:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows users to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the future direction of gold prices. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued period of volatility for gold, this market’s participants are expressing their views through their trades. It's common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the wisdom of the crowd, as represented by the odds on Predict. These differences can arise from varying interpretations of economic data, geopolitical events, or simply differing risk appetites among traders and analysts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news and events, constantly adjusting their positions and influencing the price. This dynamic pricing ensures the odds reflect the collective intelligence of the participants.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe—November 4, 10:45 PM to 11:00 PM ET. The direction of the price movement will determine which side of the market pays out. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 5, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could shift investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political developments, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, or significant movements in the US dollar, could also trigger substantial price fluctuations and impact trading activity in this market.